A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
